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Your guess is as good as mine, but not as good as ours.

Have you read The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki? I haven't either, but I know enough about it to inspire this little experiment:


One of Surowiecki's examples is the old "how many jellybeans?" guessing game. He claims that the average of all the guesses will probably be closer than any of the individual guesses.


Unfortunately I'm fresh out of jellybeans, but as you know the Black Hole Friday sale is this weekend, so I thought we'd use that for some data.


Here's the question: What do you think the maximum number of visitors at one time on Threadless.com will be over the weekend?


Cast your guess in a comment below. I'll find a prize for the person who comes closest, and a bigger prize if someone nails it. All entries must be in by 12:01am Friday.

Watch this
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skaw
skaw profile pic Staff

6200

jeffreyg
jeffreyg profile pic Staff

33,279

jeffreyg
jeffreyg profile pic Staff

There goes the average. LOL

pyr4lis
pyr4lis profile pic Alumni

11,432 (random stab in the dark cause of black friday... not counting cyber monday)

soloyo
soloyo profile pic Alumni

11,353

bsweber
bsweber profile pic Alumni

8711

silverqe
silverqe profile pic Alumni

23,300

aled
aled profile pic Alumni

75,000 unique visitors on the first day, peaking at 7,500 visitors on line at one time. 1.5 million unique visitors for the month.

EricaTheRed
EricaTheRed profile pic Alumni

hmm I'm thinking the guesses are high. I'll go with 3050.

Bramish
Bramish profile pic Alumni

281287

Disgruntled_Pacifist

Based on the fact that it is a Holiday Weekend in the U.S. and therefor the numbers of visitors will likely fall short of the normal number on the weekend, also it is the weekend which is low anyways. To add to that everyone's credit cards will be maxed after Black Friday. This pretty much eliminates 40% of US users.

With all that factored in I just chose a number randomly:

4,372

Mya Jamila

I suck at things like this.

No guess.

ir0cko
ir0cko profile pic Alumni

2,684

GRANDR
GRANDR profile pic Alumni

3520!

jess4002
jess4002 profile pic Alumni

18,109

ISABOA
ISABOA profile pic Alumni

6842.5

M MC

12,021

chaopi

11,999

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